In May of this year the U.S. military bombed villages in Farah province, killing 146 civilians, mostly women and children. There were demonstrations across Afghanistan opposing the U.S. and NATO military presence. There was a major demonstration at Kabul University, where students chanted “Death to Americans.” These demonstrations received no coverage in the North American media. The mass media collectively refuses to print any photos of the death and destruction caused by the NATO military activity. Afghanistan is not Iran.

Public opinion polls revealed that a large majority of Afghans were opposed to the Obama administration’s decision to escalate the war. In one major poll, 78% of Afghans said aerial bombardment was “unacceptable.

Latest comprehensive poll
The International Republican Institute released its latest poll on the political situation in Afghanistan in June.  Support for President Hamid Karzai continues to fall as does support for the U.S./NATO military strategy.

When asked to assess the general direction of the government and the country, 30% said it was moving in the right direction while 37% said the wrong direction. In their similar poll taken in 2004, 79% said the country was going in the right direction. Of the 3200 people surveyed, 52% concluded that the country was less stable than the previous year, 14% said it was more stable, and 22% said it was the same. Only 21% said that their own region was stable.

When asked what were the two most important problems in Afghanistan today, a total of 57% put lack of security first or second. The state of the economy and unemployment was listed by 46%.

NATO as the invaders
Support for the US/NATO mission in Afghanistan is steadily declining. When asked to grade the performance of government services, the International Security Assistance Force, which includes the Canadian military presence, was given the lowest rating, below that of the Karzai government, the parliament, the political opposition and even the Afghan national police force.  Negotiations for “reconciliation with the Taliban” had the support of 68% of those surveyed.

While 39% concluded that President Karzai’s performance was good, 55% declared that government corruption was “very serious” and 26% said it was “somewhat serious.”

The presidential election
The poll also focused on the upcoming presidential election. The survey sample covered all provinces and was stratified to parallel the ethnic divisions in the country, While 74% of those surveyed said they had registered to vote, only 59% said they were likely to vote in the presidential election. When asked who they would support, 31% said Hamid Karzai. Of the remaining 40 candidates, there was no clear alternate. The second choice was Ali Ahmad Jalali at 11% and the third choice was Abdullah Abdullah at 7%. Despite all the political alliances forged by Karzai in recent weeks, it does not appear that he will get the 51% required to win on the first ballot and a run off will be required. 

Warlords are very unpopular
The poll asked those surveyed whether they had a favourable or unfavourable opinion of a list of prominent Afghan political leaders. It is interesting to see that almost all of the well known warlords, the Islamist mujahideen commanders backed by the U.S. government in the proxy war with the Soviet Union, had the highest unfavourable ratings. Many of these people have been prominent in the Karzai government and the parliament. Zalmay Khalilzad, the Afghan-U.S. neoconservative who was President George W. Bush’s point man in creating the present system of government, had an approval rating of only 14%. President Barrack Obama has proposed that he become a new Chief Executive Officer of the Afghan government after the August presidential election.

The International Republican Institute is one of the U.S. “democracy promotion” organizations, linked to the U.S. Republican Party, and financed by the U.S. State Department. The full public opinion survey can be found on their website: http://www.iri.org

John W. Warnock is author of Creating a Failed State: The US and Canada in Afghanistan. Halifax: Fernwood Publishing, 2008.

Kabul University students shout anti-US slogans during protest on May 10, 2009. The China Daily:

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/images/attachement/jpg/site1/20090510/0022190fd3300b70d5302c.jpg

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